NEXT STEPS

Beginning in the Fall 1999, the Census Bureau is testing these definitions and concepts with businesses as we undertake an incremental program to begin providing official measures of e-commerce activities as well as providing some limited information on e-business process usage. A more ambitious measurement program focusing on understanding and measuring e-business process effects and quantifying e-business infrastructure depends on additional funding being appropriated in the FY 2001 budget (October 2000-September 2001).

Our measurement strategy is multi-faceted, yet purposeful and is tempered by the absence of any additional funding for new statistical measures in our FY 2000 budget (October 1999-September 2000). Nonetheless, we believe we must begin measuring and understanding the electronic economy now, rather than later. Faced with resource constraints, our approach leverages our core competencies by focusing first on measuring e-commerce transactions and by exploiting our existing surveys. Since we also do not have the resources or the time to do a comprehensive record keeping practices study, we fully expect during these first collections to encounter unanticipated reporting problems and identify additional measurement issues and complexities. Given these uncertainties, we characterize several of our collections as experimental in nature, but nonetheless believe our efforts will provide invaluable insights for improvements in future surveys.

In FY 2000, we will take the following actions:

• Conduct a pilot study to measure 4Q 1999 Internet sales by retailers. Beginning with reference month October 1999 we have begun collecting Internet sales from the monthly retail survey businesses (entire survey includes 12,000 retailers) that responded to a September screener indicating that they currently were selling over the Internet or planned to sell on-line by the end of 1999. If the data are reasonable and meet quality standards, we will publish a separate release on 4Q 1999 Internet retail sales in the Spring 2000. A complete evaluation of the study will be completed by the Summer 2000.
• Collect e-commerce and e-business data as a supplement to the 1999 Annual Survey of Manufactures. A supplemental form will be used to collect information on:
• • e-commerce sales (portion of total value of shipments sold over computer-mediated networks)
  • Cost of materials purchased over computer-mediated networks (proxy measure of e-business procurement)
  • Indication of existing or planned use of selected e-business processes

  A series of company visits and telephone calls are scheduled for the Fall 1999 to identify test questions, assess data availability, and determine where best to collect the information. Data collection, scheduled for Spring 2000 will be done separately from the ASM. Results will be available in early 2001.

• 1999 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Survey forms have been modified to collect information on e-commerce sales and purchases from the entire sample of 18,200 retailers, with additional information available for several selected industries. Information will be available in early 2001. Specifically industry information includes:
• • for all retail industries
    • date firm began selling on-line
    • E-commerce sales for 1999 and 1998
    • E-commerce purchases - indicator of whether retailers are purchasing goods over computer-mediated networks and possibly a percentage of total goods purchased.
  • Computer and computer software stores and Office Supply Stores - Questions for all retail industries, plus
    • Breakdown of total sales and e-commerce sales by class of customer - consumer, business, government, reseller (wholesaler or other retailer)
  • Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Houses - Questions for all retail industries, plus
    • Retail sales and e-commerce sales for 8-10 merchandise categories
• 1999 Wholesale Trade Survey. Survey forms will collect information on e-commerce sales and some data on e-commerce purchases. Annual wholesale trade survey includes 5,800 merchant wholesalers.
• 1999 Service Annual Survey. This survey has been significantly expanded to provide first time coverage of some 150 new NAICS service industries. We will collect e-commerce sales and possibly some data on e-commerce purchases from almost 60,000 service businesses.
• 1999 Accommodations and Food Service. We will collect 1999 and 1998 e-commerce sales data and possibly some data on e-commerce purchases from 5,100 businesses.
• Develop a measurement framework. The Census Bureau, working in close cooperation with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is developing a measurement framework for identifying and prioritizing future e-commerce, e-business, and e-business infrastructure measures. An initial framework will be available in the Fall 1999.
• Initiate Research Agenda. During FY 2000, the Census Bureau will contract with several private sector firms with the aim of better understanding how e-business processes are changing the firm and its internal operations, re-engineering the supply chain and changing the relationship between manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers and customers, and effects on industries and economic structure. Specific deliverables include the development of a framework for evaluating e-business processes' impact across different sector's value chains, a blueprint of possible emerging industry configurations, and development of a forward-looking e-commerce taxonomy for supplementing existing industry classification systems.

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